Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.310812 2.448616 2.598587 2.775574 2.981016 3.214989 3.506261
2025-05-18 2.119244 2.286590 2.476465 2.711821 3.001855 3.356866 3.841130
2025-05-25 2.011577 2.199045 2.418418 2.700863 3.066335 3.542713 4.251659
2025-06-01 1.925445 2.125666 2.365534 2.683750 3.112383 3.702541 4.656216
2025-06-08 1.852475 2.060935 2.315380 2.661285 3.143317 3.840102 5.058759
2025-06-15 1.811180 2.031124 2.304883 2.686926 3.239779 4.085635 5.721382
2025-06-22 1.730873 1.947355 2.218969 2.602179 3.165732 4.049997 5.843924
2025-06-29 1.688896 1.909873 2.190672 2.593884 3.202796 4.200092 6.406582
2025-07-06 1.633300 1.852174 2.132255 2.538404 3.161074 4.206893 6.650072
2025-07-13 1.616848 1.844190 2.139386 2.576461 3.268820 4.499497 7.786061
2025-07-20 1.613270 1.852482 2.168428 2.647982 3.438905 4.953202 9.921100
2025-07-27 1.586291 1.828287 2.150968 2.647723 3.486653 5.168698 11.590917
2025-08-03 1.559444 1.804392 2.134321 2.650012 3.543901 5.433880 14.316213
2025-08-10 1.516024 1.756479 2.081471 2.592103 3.485312 5.410423 15.278752
2025-08-17 1.489835 1.731148 2.059765 2.582089 3.514576 5.615342 19.236705
2025-08-24 1.463729 1.705002 2.035679 2.566530 3.531329 5.794418 25.162238
2025-08-31 1.437819 1.678286 2.009648 2.546117 3.536303 5.944427 34.963809
2025-09-07 1.425788 1.670274 2.010395 2.569391 3.630479 6.394984 204.056985
2025-09-14 1.386897 1.623785 1.952840 2.492352 3.511842 6.137852 105.312999
2025-09-21 1.368636 1.605757 1.936960 2.484796 3.537423 6.367105 NaN
2025-09-28 1.339634 1.572002 1.896712 2.434201 3.468388 6.258660 NaN
2025-10-05 1.334560 1.571730 1.906354 2.468919 3.584420 6.851161 NaN
2025-10-12 1.337223 1.582370 1.932672 2.534019 3.777354 7.905823 NaN